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Testing And Analyzing Paroli System

Last updated: 09.01.2024 by Andrew Shepard

The Paroli system is one of the more popular betting systems among roulette enthusiasts that like to generate small wins consistently and avoid the risk of substantial losses. It is also known as reverse Martingale strategy. The essence of the Paroli system is really simple: if you lose your bet, you bet again with the initial bet. If you win, you double your bet.

How Does Reverse Martingale Work?

The Paroli system is really easy to comprehend. Essentially, we set an initial minimum bet with which we want to start the cycle, for example 1AU$. Note that this system must be used even money bets, such as Red/Black, Even/Odds, or Higher/Lower. If we win the first bet, we double the next bet. If we lose the bet, we should bet again with the starting bet. The diagram below can help you better understand the strategy.

Paroli (reverse Martingale)

Example

We will provide an example to see how the Paroli system works in practice.

  • Step 1

    We choose fixed a minimal stake, and we place a bet on one of the options for example, even. We bet AU$2, and let's say we lose the bet.

  • Step 2

    We bet again the same amount on even. This time we won the bet.

  • Step 3

    After the win, the next step is to bet again, but with double the amount. So we bet AU$4 on even. We win again.

  • Step 4

    Since we won the last bet, we double the previous amount and we bet AU$8. Let's say this time we lose. We return to the initial bet of AU$2.

  • Step 5

    We are back in the beginning point and we place a bet of AU$2 on even. Based on the result we double the amount on the next bet or we stick with the original minimal bet.

Our Test Of The Anti Martingale System

Next up, we will look closely at the results that our team got from the specific test using Google Sheets based on RNG with specific probabilities. The test was made with three hypothetical players with a bankroll of AU$1,000 each, and the number of spins/moves was set to 1000 in order to obtain more accurate results.

reverse Martingale

The Paroli system essentially is a Reverse Martingale strategy and, in contrast to Martingale, it usually has a declining progression. That's the case because on even money bets, the odds of losing are higher than those of winning. Therefore, doubling the wager on a loss will increase the progression, and doubling it on a win will decrease it.

As we can see on the graph, the first player had five occasions where they had ended up with a net gain. Moreover, Player 2 achieved an impressive winning session and had bankroll of AU$2,883. Following those winning spins, the algorithm predicted that he would dip back into a net loss throughout the remainder of the session. As for Player 3, they had no luck at all, and they had no significant win during his gameplay. The three players ended the game with almost the identical amount - AU$482, AU$498 and AU$469, respectively. The peaks that we can see on the graph are the peaks of the efficiency of their progression. After reviewing the results of the test, our conclusion is that in contrast to Martingale, Reverse Martingale is less risky, and it can bring you tangible profits,if you stop at the right moment. Otherwise, your bankroll will eventually end up in a zero.

Explanation Of Pitfalls And Disadvantages When Betting Reverse Martingale

As we saw in our example, this system has its weaknesses and its advantages. The betting limits of roulette tables can be a barrier to success. Although they are often set at AU$10,000 or more, many casinos still have much lower betting limits, so a series of successful winning rounds can be broken down.

With this strategy, it is crucial to decide exactly when to stop playing because the longer you play, the more you lose. Besides the right timing, this strategy requires a lot of moves and patience to achieve your desired outcome.

Conclusion

Normally, the Reverse Martingale strategy is compared to the Martingale strategy, so we will do that here too. As opposed to the classic Martinale, which is a progressive method that is likely to lead quickly to a complete loss of one's bankroll, Paroli, with its low volatility, is a negative progression that steadily leads to total bankroll deduction over time. The Paroli system excludes the chance of losing the entire bankroll at once.

In order to succeed with the Reverse Martingale strategy, it is essential to stop after hitting a few consecutive wins, which will substantially replenish the initial bankroll. This strategy offers the possibility of quickly raising the bankroll - and it’s one of its biggest advantages.

As an example, the chances of winning seven consecutive spins are 0.71%, and 0.09% for ten consecutive wins. We believe that the Reverse Martingale is more rational than the Martingale. Furthermore, both systems can be combined and used interchangeably. For instance, the Martingale system can compensate for a bankroll loss when you are unsuccessful with Paroli.

Your new strategy is waiting to be tested - play roulette for real!

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