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Detailed Analysis of the Grand Martingale System

Last updated: 09.01.2024 by Andrew Shepard

There are many variants of the classic Martingale strategy, which we have explained in detail in another article, and some of them try to limit the wager increase. Others, on the contrary, focus on making the increase happen faster: the idea is to reach the recovery phase faster, that is, to start recovering your losses as soon as possible. The Grand Martingale is a strategy that fits this description and, in many ways, is the same as the classic Martingale. So, here too, the wager amount has to be doubled after each loss.

However, in the Grand Martingale system, you also add the baseline to this classic formula, meaning the increase happens as “wager x 2 + baseline”. This makes the overall progression much faster. For the same reason, the total amount of money you risk is greater. Below, we'll make a detailed analysis of the Grand Martingale system and see if it's a good idea to use this strategy.

Grand Martingale explained with examples

In this strategy, too, you only need to use bets that pay 1:1 (red/black, low/high, odd/even) and set a starting wager (baseline). If you lose, you will need to double the bet amount on the next spin and add the baseline value to this result. If you win, you return to the baseline value and repeat this cycle as long as needed.

Grand Martingale Strategy

Here is an example that will help you understand how Grand Martingale works:

GRAND MARTINGALE EXAMPLE

  • Spin 1

    Let's start by placing 1 AUD (baseline) on the "Red" bet and assume we lose.

  • Spin 2

    In this spin, we will double the wager amount and add it up by the baseline. The result will show what the bet value should be. 1 x 2 + 1 = 3 AUD. Let's pretend we lose again.

  • Spin 3

    The wager value for this spin should be: 3 x 2 + 1 = 7 AUD. Let's say we won this time.

  • Spin 4

    Because we won, we will return to the baseline value in this spin and place a wager of 1 AUD.

Grand Martingale system test results

We ran a series of simulations based on different factors for Martingale, and we will do the same for Grand Martingale as well. We used a roulette simulator and exported the results to Google Sheets. This simulator features three players with a bankroll of 1,000 AUD, each performing 1,000 spins. You can see the results in the image below.

Grand Martingale system

The first player was the luckiest as he managed to complete the entire simulation without going bankrupt. His bankroll after 1,000 spins was 1,998 AUD, so he managed to make a profit. The second player went bankrupt on the 636th spin as he only had 612 AUD left but had to wager 1,023 AUD to continue spinning – he did not have enough money to continue using the system. The same thing happened to the third player, but he was much more unlucky because his bankruptcy occurred on the 104th spin. By the time he reached this stage in the simulation, he had 81 AUD left in his bankroll, which was not enough to continue.

To make a healthy comparison, we created another simulation with two players. This time one of the players is using the classic Martingale, and the other is using the Grand Martingale:

Grand Martingale

First, this graph shows us that the progression is much faster when the Grand Martingale is used. On the 21st spin, the player using this strategy went bankrupt because his bankroll had dropped to 509 AUD. In other words, he spent more than half of his bankroll in the first 20 spins and did not have enough money to continue. The player using the classic Martingale was able to complete all the spins and the resulting bankroll was 1,513 AUD.

In this context, we can say that Grand Martingale caused the total wager amount to increase 35% faster. This means it will also be 35% faster to recover your losses, but your risk of going bankrupt will be much higher too. For example, if you play with a bankroll of 1,000 AUD and use the classic Martingale, you can go bankrupt on the 10th spin. Because the arithmetic increment will be:

1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 16 - 32 - 64 - 128 - 256 - 512. In other words, after the 9th spin, you will not have enough money to continue because the 10th spin will ask you to place 512 AUD.

In Grand Martingale, you reach this limit more quickly because:

1 - 3 - 7 - 15 - 31 - 63 - 127 - 255 - 511. This time, you cannot continue after the 8th spin because you have no money left for the next spin.

The probability of such an outcome is twice as high as in the classic Martingale because the probability of failure in European Roulette is as follows when the classical strategy is used:

P = (0.524)^10 = 0.1275%

When you use the Grand Martingale, this probability is doubled:

P = (0.524)^9 = 0.2433%

The main downside of Grand Martingale's strategy

Grand Martingale is a strategy that requires you to start winning earlier because losing the first eight spins is enough for you to go bankrupt, even if you start playing with only 1 AUD. If the initial wager is bigger, this can happen much more quickly. That being said, it has the same pros and cons as classic Martingale: as long as you have a big bankroll, it works sooner or later. However, unless you are a high roller, it will be very difficult to have a bankroll that is big enough for this strategy to work.

Conclusion

If Martingale isn't the right strategy for you, then Grand Martingale certainly isn't, as it makes progression 35% faster. Yes, you can start to recover your losses sooner, but the risk you take is almost twice as high. This is not a system for players with small bankrolls, and even high rollers need to use it carefully, as even a few losses in a row can take a big chunk of your budget. For example, you can increase the base bet to 2 or 5 AUD, which will make it possible to win back the loss much faster. But the main thing is to understand in what cases it is worth choosing the right strategy because selecting the right strategy will increase your chances of winning and save your budget

Your new strategy is waiting to be tested - play roulette for real!

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