While some sources say that Samuel Fisher was a casino owner, others claim that he was a professional roulette player. All we know is that he invented the Fisher Roulette Strategy, which was first mentioned in the book ‘The Sealed Book of Roulette & Trente-et-Quarante’. The book was written by Samuel Fisher himself and published in 1924. In any case, he kept this roulette system for himself until his retirement.
In this guide, we will take a look at the Fisher roulette strategy and see if it can potentially increase your winning rate.
How the Fisher System Works
Fisher's roulette strategy is one of the most interesting roulette strategies. However, it is designed only for outside betting systems. This is how the Fisher system works:
- All bets are placed on even-money outside bets, such as High/Low, Red/Black, and Odd/Even.
- We choose an amount that we want to wager each round.
- We bet the same amount unless we lose four rounds in a row. In this case, we bet again but first, we triple our stake size.
- In a situation where we win after raising the bet, then in the next round, we return to our original stake amount.
- Otherwise, if we lose four more rounds consecutively, then we multiply our stake amount by three again.
The Fisher strategy is not a progressive betting system, as it requires tripling your bet only after losing four consecutive rounds and not after every losing round. While there’s a high risk of losing all your money in a couple of rounds when using the Martingale system, the Fisher strategy significantly lowers the risk.
Let's say you lose eight times in a row. If your starting bet is 5 units, that means for the first four rounds, you bet 5, and then for the next four rounds, your bet will increase from 5 to 45 units. If you lose 4 more rounds, your bet will increase to 135 units. If we do the math, the probability of having 12 losses in a row is 0.51^12=0.03%. The probability for an even worse situation - 16 consecutive losses and a corresponding bet of 405 units is 0.51^16=0.002%. We can clearly see that the probability of such an outcome is even lower, which proves that this strategy lowers the risk of losing significantly.
Putting the Fisher system to the Test
This is how Player 1 performed.
In the first graph, we can see that Player 1 didn't have a lot of success during his session. During the entire session, he was never profitable. On the contrary, he was mostly losing money and ended up with an AU$170 net loss. His starting wager was AU$5, and his highest bet was only AU$45, which means he never had more than 7 consecutive losses.
On the second graph, we can see that Payer 2 had a successful start, and he was profitable up until round 180. After that, he had 12 consecutive losses, which meant that his stake amount hit a high of AU$270, and his negative trend began. If he was using the Martingale system after a 12-round losing streak, he would have ended up with zero in his bankroll. For the rest of the session, Player 2 had only insignificant winnings and more dominant losses, so he was mostly losing money and ended up with a net loss of AU$510. The simulation clearly shows, however, that the Fisher Roulette system can influence a positive outcome in the short term.
Let’s see how Player 3 did.
Player 3’s base bet was AU$15, and he was profitable for around half of the session. He even hit a high of AU$240 on the 386th round before he experienced a long session. Eventually, his bankroll's progression ended up negative with around AU$600 net loss.
However, as with Player 2, we can again see that this strategy may work great in the short term.
Pitfalls of the Fisher Strategy
If we make a comparison between the results of the three players, we can conclude that using the Fisher system doesn't guarantee us a profitable outcome. Additionally, if we have a long session, our bankroll is likely to plummet and eventually zero out.
It’s important to notice that, as with other strategies, it is crucial to know when to stop betting.
Even though the Fisher strategy is much more effective and less risky than other strategies, it is not that popular among beginners. The Fisher strategy is somewhat of a modification of the Martingale system. It minimizes the risk of loss as the bet is tripled only after four losing rounds in a row instead of doubling after every single losing round. When using the Fisher Strategy, it is almost impossible to lose the entire bankroll in a couple of turns.
Our simulations showed that the players with higher base waggers were profitable in the beginning of the game. However, the first player was never successful during the whole session. We can conclude that we can never be sure that the Fisher strategy will always be beneficial, even in the short term.
It is safe to say that the Fisher Roulette strategy is great for players that have a limited bankroll and don't want to lose it all quickly. However, it is crucial to choose the right base wager. This strategy may not be the best for making a big profit, but at least you will be safe from hitting zero in a turn or two - which is often the case with the more popular Martingale strategy.